All Things Bubba

Some key deadlines are looming. November 20 is the date when teams must set their rosters for the Rule 5 draft. November 30 is the non-tender deadline, and December 3 is the last day teams can outright players off the roster before the Rule 5 draft.

I wonder what the Braves are planning to do with Paul Janish. Their 40-man roster stands at 30, so even if they have a lot of prospects to protect and a lot of free agents to sign, they probably don't need his roster spot right away. But there's still the nontender deadline.

MLBTR thinks Janish will get $900,000 if they keep him, but that he's a nontender candidate. (They said that last year, too, but he was tendered a contract.) He's more expensive this year, though, and the Braves have a tight budget. Plus, there's the shoulder injury. He won't be ready to play by spring training. And he's out of options, so they can't stash him in AAA as the Reds did.

Tomahawk Take thinks the Braves should keep Janish, and that seems to reflect the general view of fans.

The expectations were that Janish would be cheap, a great stop-gap defensive player and an offensive liability. He played basically exactly to expectation. In 55 games with the Braves, he hit .186/.269/.234. Despite his terrible offensive numbers, Janish had a below average K rate and an above average BB rate. He limited his GB% to 38.1% and hit line drives about a quarter of the time. Nevertheless, the quality of his balls in play was poor. His average on line drives was a .606 and on grounders was .137, which were over a hundred points below the league. The killer was his .080 avg on fly balls, of which 22% were in field pop outs, suggesting that his contact was quite poor.

Nevertheless, his defensive prowess more than made up for his lack of offense. He minimized the defensive dropoff from Simmons being out. His range may not have been as good, but he was as sure-gloved as they come. He made almost no mistakes. Moreover, the Braves didn’t have to start Pastornicky at shortstop again after that. The numbers don’t quite bare this one out (DRS = 4,UZR = 2.3, TZ = 11) but anyone who saw him play consistently will tell you the same thing: he was very good.

He thinks Janish would be a solid and still cheap backup to Andrelton Simmons, and that Tyler Pastornicky should spend a bit more time in the minors.

The batting analysis is interesting, and pretty much what the eyeball test tells you. Janish walks and doesn't strike out, but he doesn't hit the ball very hard. Perhaps the most interesting thing is that over the past couple of years, he's hit more groundballs and a lot fewer fly balls than in his first three years. Maybe he's trying to level out his swing, and hit more line drives and fewer of those dratted infield popups? That sharp drop in fly balls probably explains why he's hit no home runs the past two seasons.

I wonder if he might be better off swinging earlier and harder. That would probably mean more strikeouts and fewer walks, but it might be worth it if it lets him hit the ball harder.

Labels: Paul Janish