Charlie Scrabbles of Red Reporter makes the argument for Paul Janish instead of Orlando Cabrera.
Even if he can just hit at replacement level, his defense makes him an above-average player. ‘Course, this assumes his defense is really THAT good, and it assumes that he can hit at replacement level. Neither of those events are slam-dunks, but it would be neat to see if it could happen. And with the team not likely to compete this season, it’s as good a time as any to experiment like that.
Janish’s glove really looks like it could be that special. Like one of the best in the league. There aren't many +15 shortstops out there, and I’d like to see that receive its due opportunity. He doesn't have to be a good hitter, or even an average hitter, but if he’s just not a terrible hitter, he could be a good player.
I'm ok with the Cabrera signing, but it proves one thing we’ve always known about this team: the management is never going to take a risk. Cabrera is a known-quantity. He’ll play 150 games this year and give you 1-1.5 WAR. That’s a fine deal at $3 million but there’s a possibility that Janish could be a 3 WAR player. It’s not a strong possibility, but it’d be fun to find out.
He explains why he thinks Janish could be a 3 WAR player:
Let’s say Janish is a +15 defender. Give him +8 for a position adjustment, +20 for a replacement adjustment, and -15 with the bat. that’s a +28 player, or 2.8 WAR. Given a full year’s playing time, I don't think any of these assumptions are all that unreasonable. The batting runs are probably the most generous on my part, but even if he’s -23 with the bat that makes him a 2 WAR player. Getting an average player as your starting SS is nothing to sneeze at.
That pretty much sums it up for me, too. And yeah, I'm annoyed because I like Janish and want him to get a shot, but it's more than that. I think the Reds' whole philosophy is wrong. They keep trying to win now,
and build for the future at the same time. I don't think that's possible, unless you're the Yankees. I'm not sure it's smart even for the Yankees. For a small market team like the Reds, it's disastrous. They end up failing at both.
Labels: Paul Janish
