All Things Bubba

Hurricane Dean is headed into the Gulf, and where he lands, nobody knows (yet). In the U.S., anywhere from Brownsville, TX to Mobile, AL is a possibility. (Florida is probably safe, at least outside the Panhandle.)

The scariest model is the one weather geeks call GFDL. (Click on FWD to see the animation.) It shows Dean heading pretty much straight for New Orleans and making landfall as a Category 5. While this projection is further east than most of the other models, GFDL historically has a good track record.

And it's not just New Orleans residents who should be worried if this happens. A lot of oil industry infrastructure is in that area. The aftermath of Katrina caused gas shortages in some places and higher prices everywhere, and if Dean follows a similar path, the destruction will probably be even worse. It looks to be a stronger storm, with warmer water to feed it. (Though hopefully people will be more prepared this time.)

Galveston/Houston is another possible landfall area. That would also be very bad news. And no, it's not because I'm worried about Bubba's house. Houston/Galveston has even more energy infrastructure than New Orleans. Rigs, ports, refineries, etc.

I'm sure those who live on the Gulf Coast are prepared. The governor of Texas has already declared Dean an imminent threat, activating the state's hurricane preparedness plans. But those who live far from the coast might take some precautions, too. In particular, you might want to gas up your car before the storm hits (which should be around Wednesday). If prices spike, you'll be glad you did. If there are outright shortages, you'll be very glad you did. If nothing happens, oh well, you'd have had to fill the tank up anyway, right?

And behind Dean, another storm is forming. This one looks like it will be even stronger than Dean. (Hurricane Felix?)

I see a lot of rainouts in the near future...