All Things Bubba

Because how can you not love a baseball player named "Bubba"?

Sunday, January 31, 2010

Why I Hate the Cabrera Signing

Charlie Scrabbles of Red Reporter makes the argument for Paul Janish instead of Orlando Cabrera.

Even if he can just hit at replacement level, his defense makes him an above-average player. ‘Course, this assumes his defense is really THAT good, and it assumes that he can hit at replacement level. Neither of those events are slam-dunks, but it would be neat to see if it could happen. And with the team not likely to compete this season, it’s as good a time as any to experiment like that.

Janish’s glove really looks like it could be that special. Like one of the best in the league. There aren't many +15 shortstops out there, and I’d like to see that receive its due opportunity. He doesn't have to be a good hitter, or even an average hitter, but if he’s just not a terrible hitter, he could be a good player.

I'm ok with the Cabrera signing, but it proves one thing we’ve always known about this team: the management is never going to take a risk. Cabrera is a known-quantity. He’ll play 150 games this year and give you 1-1.5 WAR. That’s a fine deal at $3 million but there’s a possibility that Janish could be a 3 WAR player. It’s not a strong possibility, but it’d be fun to find out.

He explains why he thinks Janish could be a 3 WAR player:

Let’s say Janish is a +15 defender. Give him +8 for a position adjustment, +20 for a replacement adjustment, and -15 with the bat. that’s a +28 player, or 2.8 WAR. Given a full year’s playing time, I don't think any of these assumptions are all that unreasonable. The batting runs are probably the most generous on my part, but even if he’s -23 with the bat that makes him a 2 WAR player. Getting an average player as your starting SS is nothing to sneeze at.

That pretty much sums it up for me, too. And yeah, I'm annoyed because I like Janish and want him to get a shot, but it's more than that. I think the Reds' whole philosophy is wrong. They keep trying to win now, and build for the future at the same time. I don't think that's possible, unless you're the Yankees. I'm not sure it's smart even for the Yankees. For a small market team like the Reds, it's disastrous. They end up failing at both.


posted by BubbaFan, 9:49 PM


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